USA: Alle 50 stater
Publisert 31. oktober 2020. Sist endret 31. oktober 2020.
1) Tabellen bygger på siste måling i alle USAs 50 stater, dvs.
ferskeste fra RCP eller 538.
2) Vi bruker samme metode som beregning av "landsresultat" i norske valg basert på lokale målinger, dvs. at delstatene leverer samme antall godkjente stemmer som i presidentvalget 2016. I Norge har det erfaringsmessig gitt en treffsikker vekting mellom fylkene. Det vil vise seg om det samme blir tilfellet mellom amerikanske delstater.
3) Bidens ledelse med denne beregningen er 8 prosentpoeng nasjonalt (52,1 vs 44,1).
4) Vår beregning bygget på 17 jevne stater i 2016, og en forutsetning om samme relative endring i landet ellers, gir Biden en større ledelse med +9,4 (51,7 vs 42,3).
5) De 17 vippestatene er felles i begge beregningene. Det betyr at Trump gjør det relativt sett noe bedre iht målingene i de 33 øvrige statene enn endringene mot 2016 i de 17 vippestatene skulle tilsi. Målingene i de 17 vippestatene er i hovedsak utført av institutter med høyere rating enn i de 33 øvrige statene.
6) Biden er uansett beregningsmåte i klar spiss.
7) Takk til Jon Aabye for tabellen.
50 stater – Trump vs Biden
Basert på ferskeste måling(er) for hver stat iht RCP + 538 innen 30.10.20
| Stat | Trump | % | Biden | % | Andre | % | Sum | Publ.dato | Trump | Biden | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 5126 | 36,0 | 8 828 | 62,0 | 285 | 2,0 | 14238 | 29.okt | 55 | ||
| Florida | 4 390 | 46,2 | 4 637 | 48,8 | 475 | 5,0 | 9 502 | 30.okt | 29 | ||
| Texas | 4 306 | 48,0 | 4 216 | 47,0 | 449 | 5,0 | 8 970 | 29.okt | 38 | ||
| New York | 2 697 | 35,0 | 4 778 | 62,0 | 231 | 3,0 | 7706 | 29.okt | 29 | ||
| Pennsylvania | 2 773 | 45,0 | 3 162 | 51,3 | 228 | 3,7 | 6 163 | 29.okt | 20 | ||
| Illinois | 2 285 | 41,0 | 3 176 | 57,0 | 111 | 2,0 | 5572 | 29.okt | 20 | ||
| Ohio | 2 380 | 43,0 | 2 657 | 48,0 | 498 | 9,0 | 5 536 | 29.okt | 18 | ||
| Michigan | 2 074 | 43,0 | 2 557 | 53,0 | 193 | 4,0 | 4 824 | 30.okt | 16 | ||
| North Carolina | 2 224 | 46,9 | 2 309 | 48,7 | 209 | 4,4 | 4 742 | 30.okt | 15 | ||
| Georgia | 1 946 | 47,0 | 1 967 | 47,5 | 228 | 5,5 | 4 141 | 30.okt | 16 | ||
| Virginia | 1 553 | 39,0 | 2 031 | 51,0 | 398 | 10,0 | 3 982 | 29.okt | 13 | ||
| New Jersey | 1 445 | 37,0 | 2 383 | 61,0 | 78 | 2,0 | 3906 | 29.okt | 14 | ||
| Massachussetts | 964 | 29,0 | 2 261 | 68,0 | 100 | 3,0 | 3325 | 29.okt | 11 | ||
| Washington | 1 161 | 35,0 | 2 057 | 62,0 | 100 | 3,0 | 3317 | 29.okt | 12 | ||
| Wisconsin | 1 289 | 43,3 | 1 518 | 51,0 | 170 | 5,7 | 2 976 | 28.okt | 10 | ||
| Minnesota | 1 237 | 42,0 | 1 384 | 47,0 | 324 | 11,0 | 2 945 | 29.okt | 10 | ||
| Missouri | 1 527 | 54,0 | 1 244 | 44,0 | 57 | 2,0 | 2828 | 29.okt | 10 | ||
| Maryland | 862 | 31,0 | 1 836 | 66,0 | 83 | 3,0 | 2782 | 29.okt | 10 | ||
| Colorado | 1 084 | 39,0 | 1 640 | 59,0 | 56 | 2,0 | 2 780 | 28.okt | 9 | ||
| Indiana | 1 489 | 54,0 | 1 213 | 44,0 | 55 | 2,0 | 2757 | 29.okt | 11 | ||
| Arizona | 1 198 | 46,0 | 1 263 | 48,5 | 143 | 5,5 | 2 604 | 29.okt | 11 | ||
| Tennessee | 1 404 | 56,0 | 1 078 | 43,0 | 25 | 1,0 | 2508 | 29.okt | 11 | ||
| Alabama | 1 231 | 58,0 | 828 | 39,0 | 64 | 3,0 | 2123 | 29.okt | 9 | ||
| South Carolina | 1 135 | 54,0 | 925 | 44,0 | 42 | 2,0 | 2102 | 29.okt | 9 | ||
| Louisiana | 1 238 | 61,0 | 730 | 36,0 | 61 | 3,0 | 2029 | 29.okt | 8 | ||
| Oregon | 780 | 39,0 | 1 181 | 59,0 | 40 | 2,0 | 2001 | 29.okt | 7 | ||
| Kentucky | 1 135 | 59,0 | 770 | 40,0 | 19 | 1,0 | 1924 | 29.okt | 8 | ||
| Connecticut | 641 | 39,0 | 986 | 60,0 | 16 | 1,0 | 1644 | 29.okt | 7 | ||
| Iowa | 736 | 47,0 | 720 | 46,0 | 110 | 7,0 | 1 566 | 29.okt | 6 | ||
| Oklahoma | 929 | 64,0 | 508 | 35,0 | 15 | 1,0 | 1452 | 29.okt | 7 | ||
| Mississippi | 739 | 61,0 | 448 | 37,0 | 24 | 2,0 | 1211 | 29.okt | 6 | ||
| Kansas | 656 | 55,0 | 513 | 43,0 | 24 | 2,0 | 1193 | 29.okt | 6 | ||
| Utah | 618 | 54,0 | 503 | 44,0 | 23 | 2,0 | 1144 | 29.okt | 6 | ||
| Arkansas | 678 | 60,0 | 441 | 39,0 | 11 | 1,0 | 1130 | 29.okt | 6 | ||
| Nevada | 495 | 44,0 | 563 | 50,0 | 68 | 6,0 | 1 125 | 28.okt | 6 | ||
| Nebraska | 473 | 56,0 | 355 | 42,0 | 17 | 2,0 | 845 | 29.okt | 4 | 1 | Biden CD2 |
| New Mexico | 359 | 45,0 | 423 | 53,0 | 16 | 2,0 | 798 | 26.okt | 5 | ||
| New Hampshire | 328 | 44,0 | 393 | 52,7 | 25 | 3,3 | 745 | 29.okt | 4 | ||
| Maine | 285 | 38,0 | 382 | 51,0 | 82 | 11,0 | 749 | 28.okt | 4 | ||
| West-Virginia | 483 | 67,0 | 231 | 32,0 | 7 | 1,0 | 721 | 29.okt | 5 | ||
| Idaho | 415 | 60,0 | 263 | 38,0 | 14 | 2,0 | 691 | 29.okt | 4 | ||
| Montana | 261 | 52,0 | 231 | 46,0 | 10 | 2,0 | 502 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| Rhode Island | 163 | 35,0 | 293 | 63,0 | 9 | 2,0 | 465 | 29.okt | 4 | ||
| Delaware | 173 | 39,0 | 266 | 60,0 | 4 | 1,0 | 444 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| Hawai | 137 | 32,0 | 279 | 65,0 | 13 | 3,0 | 429 | 29.okt | 4 | ||
| South Dakota | 226 | 61,0 | 141 | 38,0 | 4 | 1,0 | 370 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| North Dakota | 207 | 60,0 | 131 | 38,0 | 7 | 2,0 | 345 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| Alaska | 175 | 55,0 | 137 | 43,0 | 6 | 2,0 | 318 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| Vermont | 91 | 29,0 | 217 | 69,0 | 6 | 2,0 | 314 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| Washington D.C. | 19 | 6,0 | 290 | 93,0 | 3 | 1,0 | 312 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| Wyoming | 168 | 66,0 | 84 | 33,0 | 3 | 1,0 | 255 | 29.okt | 3 | ||
| Projection | 60389 | 44,06 | 71 425 | 52,12 | 5237 | 3,82 | 137051 | 169 | 369 | ||
| Justert | 44,44 | 52,56 | 3,0 |
Johan Giertsen
