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USA: Alle 50 stater

Publisert 31. oktober 2020. Sist endret 31. oktober 2020.

1) Tabellen bygger på siste måling i alle USAs 50 stater, dvs.

ferskeste fra RCP eller 538.

2) Vi bruker samme metode som beregning av "landsresultat" i norske valg basert på lokale målinger, dvs. at delstatene leverer samme antall godkjente stemmer som i presidentvalget 2016. I Norge har det erfaringsmessig gitt en treffsikker vekting mellom fylkene. Det vil vise seg om det samme blir tilfellet mellom amerikanske delstater.

3) Bidens ledelse med denne beregningen er 8 prosentpoeng nasjonalt (52,1 vs 44,1).

4) Vår beregning bygget på 17 jevne stater i 2016, og en forutsetning om samme relative endring i landet ellers, gir Biden en større ledelse med +9,4 (51,7 vs 42,3).

5) De 17 vippestatene er felles i begge beregningene. Det betyr at Trump gjør det relativt sett noe bedre iht målingene i de 33 øvrige statene enn endringene mot 2016 i de 17 vippestatene skulle tilsi. Målingene i de 17 vippestatene er i hovedsak utført av institutter med høyere rating enn i de 33 øvrige statene.

6) Biden er uansett beregningsmåte i klar spiss.

7) Takk til Jon Aabye for tabellen.

50 stater – Trump vs Biden

Basert på ferskeste måling(er) for hver stat iht RCP + 538 innen 30.10.20

Stat Trump % Biden % Andre % Sum Publ.dato Trump Biden
California 5126 36,0 8 828 62,0 285 2,0 14238 29.okt 55
Florida 4 390 46,2 4 637 48,8 475 5,0 9 502 30.okt 29
Texas 4 306 48,0 4 216 47,0 449 5,0 8 970 29.okt 38
New York 2 697 35,0 4 778 62,0 231 3,0 7706 29.okt 29
Pennsylvania 2 773 45,0 3 162 51,3 228 3,7 6 163 29.okt 20
Illinois 2 285 41,0 3 176 57,0 111 2,0 5572 29.okt 20
Ohio 2 380 43,0 2 657 48,0 498 9,0 5 536 29.okt 18
Michigan 2 074 43,0 2 557 53,0 193 4,0 4 824 30.okt 16
North Carolina 2 224 46,9 2 309 48,7 209 4,4 4 742 30.okt 15
Georgia 1 946 47,0 1 967 47,5 228 5,5 4 141 30.okt 16
Virginia 1 553 39,0 2 031 51,0 398 10,0 3 982 29.okt 13
New Jersey 1 445 37,0 2 383 61,0 78 2,0 3906 29.okt 14
Massachussetts 964 29,0 2 261 68,0 100 3,0 3325 29.okt 11
Washington 1 161 35,0 2 057 62,0 100 3,0 3317 29.okt 12
Wisconsin 1 289 43,3 1 518 51,0 170 5,7 2 976 28.okt 10
Minnesota 1 237 42,0 1 384 47,0 324 11,0 2 945 29.okt 10
Missouri 1 527 54,0 1 244 44,0 57 2,0 2828 29.okt 10
Maryland 862 31,0 1 836 66,0 83 3,0 2782 29.okt 10
Colorado 1 084 39,0 1 640 59,0 56 2,0 2 780 28.okt 9
Indiana 1 489 54,0 1 213 44,0 55 2,0 2757 29.okt 11
Arizona 1 198 46,0 1 263 48,5 143 5,5 2 604 29.okt 11
Tennessee 1 404 56,0 1 078 43,0 25 1,0 2508 29.okt 11
Alabama 1 231 58,0 828 39,0 64 3,0 2123 29.okt 9
South Carolina 1 135 54,0 925 44,0 42 2,0 2102 29.okt 9
Louisiana 1 238 61,0 730 36,0 61 3,0 2029 29.okt 8
Oregon 780 39,0 1 181 59,0 40 2,0 2001 29.okt 7
Kentucky 1 135 59,0 770 40,0 19 1,0 1924 29.okt 8
Connecticut 641 39,0 986 60,0 16 1,0 1644 29.okt 7
Iowa 736 47,0 720 46,0 110 7,0 1 566 29.okt 6
Oklahoma 929 64,0 508 35,0 15 1,0 1452 29.okt 7
Mississippi 739 61,0 448 37,0 24 2,0 1211 29.okt 6
Kansas 656 55,0 513 43,0 24 2,0 1193 29.okt 6
Utah 618 54,0 503 44,0 23 2,0 1144 29.okt 6
Arkansas 678 60,0 441 39,0 11 1,0 1130 29.okt 6
Nevada 495 44,0 563 50,0 68 6,0 1 125 28.okt 6
Nebraska 473 56,0 355 42,0 17 2,0 845 29.okt 4 1 Biden CD2
New Mexico 359 45,0 423 53,0 16 2,0 798 26.okt 5
New Hampshire 328 44,0 393 52,7 25 3,3 745 29.okt 4
Maine 285 38,0 382 51,0 82 11,0 749 28.okt 4
West-Virginia 483 67,0 231 32,0 7 1,0 721 29.okt 5
Idaho 415 60,0 263 38,0 14 2,0 691 29.okt 4
Montana 261 52,0 231 46,0 10 2,0 502 29.okt 3
Rhode Island 163 35,0 293 63,0 9 2,0 465 29.okt 4
Delaware 173 39,0 266 60,0 4 1,0 444 29.okt 3
Hawai 137 32,0 279 65,0 13 3,0 429 29.okt 4
South Dakota 226 61,0 141 38,0 4 1,0 370 29.okt 3
North Dakota 207 60,0 131 38,0 7 2,0 345 29.okt 3
Alaska 175 55,0 137 43,0 6 2,0 318 29.okt 3
Vermont 91 29,0 217 69,0 6 2,0 314 29.okt 3
Washington D.C. 19 6,0 290 93,0 3 1,0 312 29.okt 3
Wyoming 168 66,0 84 33,0 3 1,0 255 29.okt 3
Projection 60389 44,06 71 425 52,12 5237 3,82 137051 169 369
Justert 44,44 52,56 3,0

Johan Giertsen

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