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USA: Alle 50 stater

Publisert 20. oktober 2020. Sist endret 20. oktober 2020.

1) Tabellen bygger på siste måling i alle USAs 50 stater, dvs. ferskeste fra RCP eller 538.

2) Vi bruker samme metode som beregning av "landsresultat" i norske valg basert på lokale målinger, dvs. at delstatene leverer samme antall godkjente stemmer som i presidentvalget 2016.

3) Bidens ledelse med denne beregningen er 9,0 prosentpoeng nasjonalt (53,3 vs 44,3).

4) Vår beregning bygget på 17 jevne stater i 2016, og en forutsetning om samme relative endring i landet ellers, gir Biden +9,2 (53,1 vs 43,9). At disse ulike beregningene er så tett på hverandre hva gjelder Bidens ledelse, er interessant.

5) Takk til Jon Aabye for tabellen.

50 stater – Trump vs Biden

Basert på ferskeste måling(er) for hver stat iht RCP + 538 innen 19.10.20

Stat Trump % Biden % Andre % Sum Publ.dato Elektorer Trump Elektorer Biden
California 5126 36,0 8 828 62,0 285 2,0 14238 15.okt 55
Florida 4 418 46,5 4 561 48,0 523 5,5 9 502 16.okt 29
Texas 4 575 51,0 4 216 47,0 179 2,0 8 970 17.okt 38
New York 2 543 33,0 5 009 65,0 154 2,0 7706 15.okt 29
Pennsylvania 2 835 46,0 3 266 53,0 62 1,0 6 163 17.okt 20
Illinois 2 117 38,0 3 343 60,0 111 2,0 5572 15.okt 20
Ohio 2 823 51,0 2 602 47,0 111 2,0 5 536 17.okt 18
Michigan 2 123 44,0 2 557 53,0 145 3,0 4 824 17.okt 16
North Carolina 2 181 46,0 2 466 52,0 95 2,0 4 742 17.okt 15
Georgia 1 967 47,5 2 029 49,0 145 3,5 4 141 16.okt 16
Virginia 1 672 42,0 2 230 56,0 80 2,0 3 982 17.okt 13
New Jersey 1 406 36,0 2 285 58,5 215 5,5 3906 15.okt 14
Massachussetts 964 29,0 2 294 69,0 67 2,0 3325 15.okt 11
Washington 1 227 37,0 2 023 61,0 66 2,0 3317 15.okt 12
Wisconsin 1 324 44,5 1 577 53,0 74 2,5 2 976 17.okt 10
Minnesota 1 237 42,0 1 649 56,0 59 2,0 2 945 17.okt 10
Missouri 1 471 52,0 1 273 45,0 85 3,0 2828 15.okt 10
Maryland 890 32,0 1 864 67,0 28 1,0 2782 15.okt 10
Colorado 1 098 39,5 1 571 56,5 111 4,0 2 780 17.okt 9
Indiana 1 461 53,0 1 241 45,0 55 2,0 2757 15.okt 11
Arizona 1 198 46,0 1 341 51,5 65 2,5 2 604 17.okt 11
Tennessee 1 455 58,0 1 003 40,0 50 2,0 2508 15.okt 11
Alabama 1 253 59,0 828 39,0 42 2,0 2123 15.okt 9
South Carolina 1 093 52,0 946 45,0 63 3,0 2102 15.okt 9
Louisiana 1 157 57,0 812 40,0 61 3,0 2029 15.okt 8
Oregon 760 38,0 1 201 60,0 40 2,0 2001 15.okt 7
Kentucky 1 116 58,0 789 41,0 19 1,0 1924 15.okt 8
Connecticut 559 34,0 1 052 64,0 33 2,0 1644 15.okt 7
Iowa 767 49,0 783 50,0 16 1,0 1 566 17.okt 6
Oklahoma 842 58,0 581 40,0 29 2,0 1452 15.okt 7
Mississippi 714 59,0 472 39,0 24 2,0 1211 15.okt 6
Kansas 632 53,0 549 46,0 12 1,0 1193 15.okt 6
Utah 618 54,0 503 44,0 23 2,0 1144 15.okt 6
Arkansas 655 58,0 441 39,0 34 3,0 1130 15.okt 6
Nevada 540 48,0 574 51,0 11 1,0 1 125 17.okt 6
Nebraska 448 53,0 380 45,0 17 2,0 845 15.okt 4 1 Biden CD2
New Mexico 367 46,0 423 53,0 8 1,0 798 17.okt 5
New Hampshire 305 41,0 432 58,0 7 1,0 745 17.okt 4
Maine 322 43,0 419 56,0 7 1,0 749 17.okt 4
West-Virginia 461 64,0 245 34,0 14 2,0 721 15.okt 5
Idaho 408 59,0 269 39,0 14 2,0 691 15.okt 4
Montana 271 54,0 221 44,0 10 2,0 502 15.okt 3
Rhode Island 144 31,0 316 68,0 5 1,0 465 15.okt 4
Delaware 147 33,0 289 65,0 9 2,0 444 15.okt 3
Hawai 133 31,0 287 67,0 9 2,0 429 15.okt 4
South Dakota 215 58,0 152 41,0 4 1,0 370 01.okt 3
North Dakota 204 59,0 135 39,0 7 2,0 345 15.okt 3
Alaska 156 49,0 134 42,0 29 9,0 318 15.okt 3
Vermont 100 32,0 210 67,0 3 1,0 314 15.okt 3
Washington D.C. 31 10,0 275 88,0 6 2,0 312 15.okt 3
Wyoming 163 64,0 87 34,0 5 2,0 255 15.okt 3
Projection 60694 44,3 73 031 53,3 3325 2,4 137051 181 357
Justert 44,1 44,0 53,0 3,0

Johan Giertsen

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