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USA alle 50 stater

Publisert 11. august 2020. Sist endret 11. august 2020.

1) Tabellen, utarbeidet med takk av Jon Aabye, gjelder alle femti delstater i USA + hovedstaden Washington DC, basert på ferskeste måling iht RCP og 538.

2) Tabellen bygger på de samme prinsippene som pollofpolls bruker når vi beregner \"landsresultat\" iht fylkesmålinger; sist publiserte måling i hvert fylke (delstat), og at fylkene (delstatene) leverer samme antall stemmer som i forrige stortingsvalg (presidentvalg).

3) Særlig forutsetningen om samme antall stemmer i delstatene i 2020 som i 2016, kan nok implisere større feilkilder i USA enn i Norge. Valgnatten 3. november 2020 vet vi mer om denne beregningen kan ha noe for seg også i USA.

50 stater – Trump vs Biden

Basert på ferskeste måling(er) for hver stat iht RCP + 538 innen 08.08.20

Stat Trump % Biden % Andre % Sum Publ.dato Trump Biden
California 3987 28,0 9 539 67,0 712 5,0 14238 27.jul 55
Florida 4 342 45,7 4 722 49,7 437 4,6 9 502 30.jul 29
Texas 4 395 49,0 3 857 43,0 718 8,0 8 970 07.aug 38
New York 2 466 32,0 4 392 57,0 848 11,0 7706 25.jun 29
Pennsylvania 2 773 45,0 3 143 51,0 247 4,0 6 163 04.aug 20
Illinois 2 145 38,5 3 092 55,5 334 6,0 5572 20
Ohio 2 297 41,5 2 464 44,5 775 14,0 5 536 03.aug 18
Michigan 1 930 40,0 2 460 51,0 434 9,0 4 824 07.aug 16
North Carolina 2 086 44,0 2 276 48,0 379 8,0 4 742 04.aug 15
Georgia 1 863 45,0 1 905 46,0 373 9,0 4 141 02.aug 16
Virginia 1 553 39,0 2 031 51,0 398 10,0 3 982 30.jul 13
New Jersey 1 289 33,0 1 992 51,0 625 16,0 3906 12.jul 14
Massachussetts 765 23,0 1 829 55,0 732 22,0 3325 20.jul 11
Washington 929 28,0 2 057 62,0 332 10,0 3317 27.jul 12
Wisconsin 1 131 38,0 1 548 52,0 298 10,0 2 976 04.aug 10
Minnesota 1 060 36,0 1 590 54,0 295 10,0 2 945 05.aug 10
Missouri 1 414 50,0 1 216 43,0 198 7,0 2828 01.jul 10
Maryland 974 35,0 1 641 59,0 167 6,0 2782 23.mai 10
Colorado 1 112 40,0 1 473 53,0 195 7,0 2 780 27.jul 9
Indiana 1 516 55,0 1 048 38,0 193 7,0 2757 04.aug 11
Arizona 1 146 44,0 1 224 47,0 234 9,0 2 604 05.aug 11
Tennessee 1 279 51,0 1 053 42,0 176 7,0 2508 08.jun 11
Alabama 1 231 58,0 764 36,0 127 6,0 2123 03.aug 9
South Carolina 988 47,0 883 42,0 231 11,0 2102 05.aug 9
Louisiana 1 179 58,1 779 38,4 71 3,5 2029 8
Oregon 782 39,1 1 003 50,1 217 10,8 2001 7
Kentucky 962 50,0 789 41,0 173 9,0 1924 05.aug 8
Connecticut 543 33,0 921 56,0 181 11,0 1644 04.mai 7
Iowa 697 44,5 705 45,0 164 10,5 1 566 05.aug 6
Oklahoma 420 56,0 949 36,0 83 8,0 1452 05.aug 7
Mississippi 485 50,0 701 41,0 25 9,0 1211 04.jun 6
Kansas 597 50,0 513 43,0 84 7,0 1193 06.aug 6
Utah 572 50,0 355 31,0 217 19,0 1144 06.aug 6
Arkansas 531 47,0 509 45,0 90 8,0 1130 10.jun 6
Nevada 506 45,0 551 49,0 68 6,0 1 125 06.mai 6
Nebraska 496 58,7 285 33,7 64 7,6 845 4 1 Biden CD2
New Mexico 311 39,0 423 53,0 64 8,0 798 16.jun 5
New Hampshire 298 40,0 395 53,0 52 7,0 745 30.jul 4
Maine 277 37,0 389 52,0 82 11,0 749 06.aug 4
West-Virginia 476 66,0 224 31,0 22 3,0 721 14.jan 5
Idaho 409 59,2 190 27,5 92 13,3 691 4
Montana 271 54,0 231 46,0 0 0,0 502 02.aug 3
Rhode Island 181 38,9 253 54,4 31 6,7 465 4
Delaware 178 40,0 249 56,0 18 4,0 444 21.jan 3
Hawai 124 29,0 240 56,0 64 15,0 429 04.aug 4
South Dakota 228 61,6 117 31,6 25 6,8 370 3
North Dakota 190 55,0 131 38,0 24 7,0 345 08.mar 3
Alaska 159 50,0 140 44,0 19 6,0 318 24.jul 3
Vermont 95 30,3 178 56,7 41 13,1 314 3
Washington D.C. 13 4,2 283 90,7 16 5,1 312 3
Wyoming 174 68,2 56 22,0 25 9,8 255 3
Projection 55826 40,7 69 757 50,9 11469 8,4 137051 163 375
Justert 43,1 53,9 3,0

Johan Giertsen

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