USA: Alle 50 stater
Publisert 22. september 2020. Sist endret 22. september 2020.
1) Tabellen bygger på siste måling i alle USAs 50 stater, dvs. ferskeste fra RCP eller 538.
2) Bidens ledelse med denne beregningen er 8,5 prosentpoeng nasjonalt (50,7 vs 42,2).
3) Vår beregning bygget på 17 jevne stater i 2016, og en forutsetning om samme relative endring i landet ellers, gir Biden +8,9 (50,5 vs 41,6).
4) Takk til Jon Aabye.
50 stater – Trump vs Biden
Basert på ferskeste måling(er) for hver stat iht RCP + 538 innen 20.09.20
| Stat | Trump | % | Biden | % | Andre | % | Sum | Publ.dato | Trump | Biden | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 4414 | 31,0 | 8 614 | 60,5 | 1210 | 8,5 | 14238 | 17.sep | 55 | ||
| Florida | 4 181 | 44,0 | 4 466 | 47,0 | 855 | 9,0 | 9 502 | 17.sep | 29 | ||
| Texas | 4 216 | 47,0 | 4 171 | 46,5 | 583 | 6,5 | 8 970 | 08.sep | 38 | ||
| New York | 2 466 | 32,0 | 4 855 | 63,0 | 385 | 5,0 | 7706 | 25.aug | 29 | ||
| Pennsylvania | 2 712 | 44,0 | 3 063 | 49,7 | 388 | 6,3 | 6 163 | 18.sep | 20 | ||
| Illinois | 2 145 | 38,5 | 3 092 | 55,5 | 334 | 6,0 | 5572 | 20 | |||
| Ohio | 2 657 | 48,0 | 2 491 | 45,0 | 388 | 7,0 | 5 536 | 18.sep | 18 | ||
| Michigan | 1 944 | 40,3 | 2 412 | 50,0 | 468 | 9,7 | 4 824 | 18.sep | 16 | ||
| North Carolina | 2 086 | 44,0 | 2 181 | 46,0 | 474 | 10,0 | 4 742 | 18.sep | 15 | ||
| Georgia | 1 946 | 47,0 | 1 926 | 46,5 | 269 | 6,5 | 4 141 | 09.sep | 16 | ||
| Virginia | 1 553 | 39,0 | 2 110 | 53,0 | 319 | 8,0 | 3 982 | 15.sep | 13 | ||
| New Jersey | 1 562 | 40,0 | 2 265 | 58,0 | 78 | 2,0 | 3906 | 07.sep | 14 | ||
| Massachussetts | 1 031 | 31,0 | 2 294 | 69,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 3325 | 28.aug | 11 | ||
| Washington | 929 | 28,0 | 2 057 | 62,0 | 332 | 10,0 | 3317 | 27.jul | 12 | ||
| Wisconsin | 1 259 | 42,3 | 1 479 | 49,7 | 238 | 8,0 | 2 976 | 18.sep | 10 | ||
| Minnesota | 1 207 | 41,0 | 1 679 | 57,0 | 59 | 2,0 | 2 945 | 16.sep | 10 | ||
| Missouri | 1 499 | 53,0 | 1 273 | 45,0 | 57 | 2,0 | 2828 | 19.sep | 10 | ||
| Maryland | 974 | 35,0 | 1 641 | 59,0 | 167 | 6,0 | 2782 | 23.mai | 10 | ||
| Colorado | 1 140 | 41,0 | 1 473 | 53,0 | 167 | 6,0 | 2 780 | 14.sep | 9 | ||
| Indiana | 1 461 | 53,0 | 1 075 | 39,0 | 221 | 8,0 | 2757 | 09.sep | 11 | ||
| Arizona | 1 120 | 43,0 | 1 250 | 48,0 | 234 | 9,0 | 2 604 | 18.sep | 11 | ||
| Tennessee | 1 279 | 51,0 | 1 053 | 42,0 | 176 | 7,0 | 2508 | 08.jun | 11 | ||
| Alabama | 1 231 | 58,0 | 764 | 36,0 | 127 | 6,0 | 2123 | 03.aug | 9 | ||
| South Carolina | 1 072 | 51,0 | 946 | 45,0 | 84 | 4,0 | 2102 | 16.sep | 9 | ||
| Louisiana | 1 102 | 54,3 | 769 | 37,9 | 158 | 7,8 | 2029 | 24.aug | 8 | ||
| Oregon | 780 | 39,0 | 1 021 | 51,0 | 200 | 10,0 | 2001 | 10.sep | 7 | ||
| Kentucky | 1 116 | 58,0 | 731 | 38,0 | 77 | 4,0 | 1924 | 16.sep | 8 | ||
| Connecticut | 526 | 32,0 | 855 | 52,0 | 263 | 16,0 | 1644 | 14.aug | 7 | ||
| Iowa | 736 | 47,0 | 705 | 45,0 | 125 | 8,0 | 1 566 | 09.sep | 6 | ||
| Oklahoma | 857 | 59,0 | 508 | 35,0 | 87 | 6,0 | 1452 | 08.sep | 7 | ||
| Mississippi | 642 | 53,0 | 521 | 43,0 | 48 | 4,0 | 1211 | 12.aug | 6 | ||
| Kansas | 573 | 48,0 | 489 | 41,0 | 131 | 11,0 | 1193 | 11.aug | 6 | ||
| Utah | 606 | 53,0 | 400 | 35,0 | 137 | 12,0 | 1144 | 17.sep | 6 | ||
| Arkansas | 531 | 47,0 | 509 | 45,0 | 90 | 8,0 | 1130 | 13.jun | 6 | ||
| Nevada | 473 | 42,0 | 518 | 46,0 | 135 | 12,0 | 1 125 | 12.sep | 6 | ||
| Nebraska | 496 | 58,7 | 285 | 33,7 | 64 | 7,6 | 845 | 4 | 1 | Biden CD2 | |
| New Mexico | 311 | 39,0 | 431 | 54,0 | 56 | 7,0 | 798 | 05.sep | 5 | ||
| New Hampshire | 313 | 42,0 | 335 | 45,0 | 97 | 13,0 | 745 | 12.sep | 4 | ||
| Maine | 285 | 38,0 | 412 | 55,0 | 52 | 7,0 | 749 | 18.sep | 4 | ||
| West-Virginia | 476 | 66,0 | 224 | 31,0 | 22 | 3,0 | 721 | 14.jan | 5 | ||
| Idaho | 415 | 60,0 | 235 | 34,0 | 41 | 6,0 | 691 | 06.sep | 4 | ||
| Montana | 251 | 50,0 | 216 | 43,0 | 35 | 7,0 | 502 | 09.sep | 3 | ||
| Rhode Island | 181 | 38,9 | 253 | 54,4 | 31 | 6,7 | 465 | 4 | |||
| Delaware | 164 | 37,0 | 258 | 58,0 | 22 | 5,0 | 444 | 25.aug | 3 | ||
| Hawai | 124 | 29,0 | 240 | 56,0 | 64 | 15,0 | 429 | 04.aug | 4 | ||
| South Dakota | 228 | 61,6 | 117 | 31,6 | 25 | 6,8 | 370 | 3 | |||
| North Dakota | 190 | 55,0 | 131 | 38,0 | 24 | 7,0 | 345 | 08.mar | 3 | ||
| Alaska | 159 | 50,0 | 140 | 44,0 | 19 | 6,0 | 318 | 24.jul | 3 | ||
| Vermont | 95 | 30,3 | 178 | 56,7 | 41 | 13,0 | 314 | 3 | |||
| Washington D.C. | 13 | 4,2 | 283 | 90,7 | 16 | 5,1 | 312 | 3 | |||
| Wyoming | 174 | 68,2 | 56 | 22,0 | 25 | 9,8 | 255 | 3 | |||
| Projection | 57900 | 42,2 | 69 449 | 50,7 | 9701 | 7,1 | 137051 | 203 | 335 | ||
| Justert | 44,1 | 44,1 | 52,9 | 3,0 |
Johan Giertsen
