USA alle 50 stater
Publisert 11. august 2020. Sist endret 11. august 2020.
1) Tabellen, utarbeidet med takk av Jon Aabye, gjelder alle femti delstater i USA + hovedstaden Washington DC, basert på ferskeste måling iht RCP og 538.
2) Tabellen bygger på de samme prinsippene som pollofpolls bruker når vi beregner \"landsresultat\" iht fylkesmålinger; sist publiserte måling i hvert fylke (delstat), og at fylkene (delstatene) leverer samme antall stemmer som i forrige stortingsvalg (presidentvalg).
3) Særlig forutsetningen om samme antall stemmer i delstatene i 2020 som i 2016, kan nok implisere større feilkilder i USA enn i Norge. Valgnatten 3. november 2020 vet vi mer om denne beregningen kan ha noe for seg også i USA.
50 stater – Trump vs Biden
Basert på ferskeste måling(er) for hver stat iht RCP + 538 innen 08.08.20
Stat | Trump | % | Biden | % | Andre | % | Sum | Publ.dato | Trump | Biden | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California | 3987 | 28,0 | 9 539 | 67,0 | 712 | 5,0 | 14238 | 27.jul | 55 | ||
Florida | 4 342 | 45,7 | 4 722 | 49,7 | 437 | 4,6 | 9 502 | 30.jul | 29 | ||
Texas | 4 395 | 49,0 | 3 857 | 43,0 | 718 | 8,0 | 8 970 | 07.aug | 38 | ||
New York | 2 466 | 32,0 | 4 392 | 57,0 | 848 | 11,0 | 7706 | 25.jun | 29 | ||
Pennsylvania | 2 773 | 45,0 | 3 143 | 51,0 | 247 | 4,0 | 6 163 | 04.aug | 20 | ||
Illinois | 2 145 | 38,5 | 3 092 | 55,5 | 334 | 6,0 | 5572 | 20 | |||
Ohio | 2 297 | 41,5 | 2 464 | 44,5 | 775 | 14,0 | 5 536 | 03.aug | 18 | ||
Michigan | 1 930 | 40,0 | 2 460 | 51,0 | 434 | 9,0 | 4 824 | 07.aug | 16 | ||
North Carolina | 2 086 | 44,0 | 2 276 | 48,0 | 379 | 8,0 | 4 742 | 04.aug | 15 | ||
Georgia | 1 863 | 45,0 | 1 905 | 46,0 | 373 | 9,0 | 4 141 | 02.aug | 16 | ||
Virginia | 1 553 | 39,0 | 2 031 | 51,0 | 398 | 10,0 | 3 982 | 30.jul | 13 | ||
New Jersey | 1 289 | 33,0 | 1 992 | 51,0 | 625 | 16,0 | 3906 | 12.jul | 14 | ||
Massachussetts | 765 | 23,0 | 1 829 | 55,0 | 732 | 22,0 | 3325 | 20.jul | 11 | ||
Washington | 929 | 28,0 | 2 057 | 62,0 | 332 | 10,0 | 3317 | 27.jul | 12 | ||
Wisconsin | 1 131 | 38,0 | 1 548 | 52,0 | 298 | 10,0 | 2 976 | 04.aug | 10 | ||
Minnesota | 1 060 | 36,0 | 1 590 | 54,0 | 295 | 10,0 | 2 945 | 05.aug | 10 | ||
Missouri | 1 414 | 50,0 | 1 216 | 43,0 | 198 | 7,0 | 2828 | 01.jul | 10 | ||
Maryland | 974 | 35,0 | 1 641 | 59,0 | 167 | 6,0 | 2782 | 23.mai | 10 | ||
Colorado | 1 112 | 40,0 | 1 473 | 53,0 | 195 | 7,0 | 2 780 | 27.jul | 9 | ||
Indiana | 1 516 | 55,0 | 1 048 | 38,0 | 193 | 7,0 | 2757 | 04.aug | 11 | ||
Arizona | 1 146 | 44,0 | 1 224 | 47,0 | 234 | 9,0 | 2 604 | 05.aug | 11 | ||
Tennessee | 1 279 | 51,0 | 1 053 | 42,0 | 176 | 7,0 | 2508 | 08.jun | 11 | ||
Alabama | 1 231 | 58,0 | 764 | 36,0 | 127 | 6,0 | 2123 | 03.aug | 9 | ||
South Carolina | 988 | 47,0 | 883 | 42,0 | 231 | 11,0 | 2102 | 05.aug | 9 | ||
Louisiana | 1 179 | 58,1 | 779 | 38,4 | 71 | 3,5 | 2029 | 8 | |||
Oregon | 782 | 39,1 | 1 003 | 50,1 | 217 | 10,8 | 2001 | 7 | |||
Kentucky | 962 | 50,0 | 789 | 41,0 | 173 | 9,0 | 1924 | 05.aug | 8 | ||
Connecticut | 543 | 33,0 | 921 | 56,0 | 181 | 11,0 | 1644 | 04.mai | 7 | ||
Iowa | 697 | 44,5 | 705 | 45,0 | 164 | 10,5 | 1 566 | 05.aug | 6 | ||
Oklahoma | 420 | 56,0 | 949 | 36,0 | 83 | 8,0 | 1452 | 05.aug | 7 | ||
Mississippi | 485 | 50,0 | 701 | 41,0 | 25 | 9,0 | 1211 | 04.jun | 6 | ||
Kansas | 597 | 50,0 | 513 | 43,0 | 84 | 7,0 | 1193 | 06.aug | 6 | ||
Utah | 572 | 50,0 | 355 | 31,0 | 217 | 19,0 | 1144 | 06.aug | 6 | ||
Arkansas | 531 | 47,0 | 509 | 45,0 | 90 | 8,0 | 1130 | 10.jun | 6 | ||
Nevada | 506 | 45,0 | 551 | 49,0 | 68 | 6,0 | 1 125 | 06.mai | 6 | ||
Nebraska | 496 | 58,7 | 285 | 33,7 | 64 | 7,6 | 845 | 4 | 1 | Biden CD2 | |
New Mexico | 311 | 39,0 | 423 | 53,0 | 64 | 8,0 | 798 | 16.jun | 5 | ||
New Hampshire | 298 | 40,0 | 395 | 53,0 | 52 | 7,0 | 745 | 30.jul | 4 | ||
Maine | 277 | 37,0 | 389 | 52,0 | 82 | 11,0 | 749 | 06.aug | 4 | ||
West-Virginia | 476 | 66,0 | 224 | 31,0 | 22 | 3,0 | 721 | 14.jan | 5 | ||
Idaho | 409 | 59,2 | 190 | 27,5 | 92 | 13,3 | 691 | 4 | |||
Montana | 271 | 54,0 | 231 | 46,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 502 | 02.aug | 3 | ||
Rhode Island | 181 | 38,9 | 253 | 54,4 | 31 | 6,7 | 465 | 4 | |||
Delaware | 178 | 40,0 | 249 | 56,0 | 18 | 4,0 | 444 | 21.jan | 3 | ||
Hawai | 124 | 29,0 | 240 | 56,0 | 64 | 15,0 | 429 | 04.aug | 4 | ||
South Dakota | 228 | 61,6 | 117 | 31,6 | 25 | 6,8 | 370 | 3 | |||
North Dakota | 190 | 55,0 | 131 | 38,0 | 24 | 7,0 | 345 | 08.mar | 3 | ||
Alaska | 159 | 50,0 | 140 | 44,0 | 19 | 6,0 | 318 | 24.jul | 3 | ||
Vermont | 95 | 30,3 | 178 | 56,7 | 41 | 13,1 | 314 | 3 | |||
Washington D.C. | 13 | 4,2 | 283 | 90,7 | 16 | 5,1 | 312 | 3 | |||
Wyoming | 174 | 68,2 | 56 | 22,0 | 25 | 9,8 | 255 | 3 | |||
Projection | 55826 | 40,7 | 69 757 | 50,9 | 11469 | 8,4 | 137051 | 163 | 375 | ||
Justert | 43,1 | 53,9 | 3,0 |
Johan Giertsen